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TPMMUCKRACKER.COM NIE: The Surge Can't Work

Wow, this is grim. According to the just-released Key Judgments (pdf file at dni.gov) of the National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq, political reconciliation is likely a bridge too far over the next year and a half.

...even if violence is diminished, given the current winner-take-all attitude and sectarian animosities infecting the political scene, Iraqi leaders will be hard pressed to achieve sustained political reconciliation in the time frame of this Estimate.

About Iran. This must have been one of the most controversial elements of the estimate: Iraq's neighbors are "not likely to be a major driver of violence or the prospects for stability because of the self-sustaining character of Iraq's internal sectarian dynamics." There's the expected qualifications that Iran and Syria are up to no good, but this is the major point. In other words, no matter how much Bush wants to lay the blame for the disintegration of Iraq on the meddlesome interference of Iran and Syria, the U.S.-sponsored political process itself -- indeed, the new, U.S.-midwifed Iraqi political order -- itself sows the seeds for the country's destruction. Apparently Bush could attack Iran to his heart's content, and Iraq would still remain inflamed.

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The Carpetbagger Report

It’s getting worse

The National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq was such a thorough undertaking, it couldn’t even be completed in time for the president to launch a new escalation policy (which, presumably, would be based in part on the NIE). Given the six months of painstaking work from the entire intelligence community, this would finally be a complete take on conditions, progress, and stability in Iraq.

So, where are we? Nowhere good.

Iraq at Risk of Further Strife, Intelligence Report Warns :: Washington Post

A long-awaited National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq, presented to President Bush by the intelligence community yesterday, outlines an increasingly perilous situation in which the United States has little control and there is a strong possibility of further deterioration, according to sources familiar with the document.

In a discussion of whether Iraq has reached a state of civil war, the 90-page classified NIE comes to no conclusion and holds out prospects of improvement. But it couches glimmers of optimism in deep uncertainty about whether the Iraqi leaders will be able to transcend sectarian interests and fight against extremists, establish effective national institutions and end rampant corruption.

The document emphasizes that although al-Qaeda activities in Iraq remain a problem, they have been surpassed by Iraqi-on-Iraqi violence as the primary source of conflict and the most immediate threat to U.S. goals. Iran, which the administration has charged with supplying and directing Iraqi extremists, is mentioned but is not a focus.

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More links to this issue...

Taylor Marsh   •   AMERICAblog   •   Reason Magazine   •   CANNONFIRE   •   State Of The Day   •   Bush tried to stop this NIE

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Tags ::  Politics • Surge • Iraq • NIE • Bush